Crude Brent has risen this year from USD44/bbl in June to current USD63/bbl. While this pales in comparison to the drop from USD115/bbl to USD45/bbl over June 2014 to January 2015, in percentage growth terms it is still a whopping rise of 43%.
After a day of talks in Vienna, OPEC and its allies outside the group agreed to maintain oil production cuts until the end of 2018. By keeping the 1.8 million barrels a day of cuts in place until the next review in June 2018, the oil producers aim to return stockpiles to their five-year average without overheating the market and eliciting a new flood of shale oil.
Although the economic impact is hard to gauge since it depends not only on the level but also on the duration of the oil price rise, we share what we believe to be the winners and losers if oil price were to average at $65/barrel in 2018 (Figure 1) as follows (for countries where unit trust funds have exposures)